Mar 15, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: China – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The dairy market in China is forecasted to experience steady growth over the next decade, fueled by rising demand. By 2035, the market volume is expected to reach 58M tons, with a value of $63.1B. Despite a projected deceleration in market performance, the dairy industry in China is poised for continued expansion.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 58M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $63.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
China’s Consumption of Dairy
In 2024, consumption of dairy produce decreased by -3.2% to 50M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a six-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 51M tons in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year.
The value of the dairy produce market in China dropped slightly to $49.1B in 2024, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Dairy produce consumption peaked at $51.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Consumption By Type
Whole fresh milk (46M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, comprising approx. 92% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (2.3M tons), more than tenfold. Powdered milk (616K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 1.2% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of whole fresh milk consumption totaled +2.6%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+0.3% per year) and powdered milk (-2.9% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($39.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by skim milk ($3.6B). It was followed by powdered milk.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of whole fresh milk market stood at +2.4%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+0.1% per year) and powdered milk (-3.7% per year).
Production
China’s Production of Dairy
After six years of growth, production of dairy produce decreased by -2.8% to 48M tons in 2024. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 7%. Dairy produce production peaked at 49M tons in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce production reached $44.4B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $45B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Production By Type
Whole fresh milk (45M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 94% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (2.2M tons), more than tenfold. Cheese (207K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 0.4% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of whole fresh milk production stood at +2.5%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+0.1% per year) and cheese (-0.4% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($39.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by skim milk ($3.4B). It was followed by cheese.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of whole fresh milk production totaled +2.4%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (-0.1% per year) and cheese (+1.8% per year).
Imports
China’s Imports of Dairy
In 2024, supplies from abroad of dairy produce decreased by -12.2% to 1.7M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after six years of growth. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a temperate increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 36% against the previous year. Imports peaked at 2.9M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, dairy produce imports contracted to $5.7B in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a moderate expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 42%. Imports peaked at $8B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.
Imports By Country
In 2023, New Zealand (1.1M tons) constituted the largest dairy produce supplier to China, with a 57% share of total imports. Moreover, dairy produce imports from New Zealand exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Germany (258K tons), fourfold. Australia (167K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with an 8.7% share.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from New Zealand totaled +3.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+10.3% per year) and Australia (+10.2% per year).
In value terms, New Zealand ($3.9B) constituted the largest supplier of dairy produce to China, comprising 62% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Australia ($641M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by France, with a 5.6% share.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value from New Zealand stood at +2.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Australia (+11.6% per year) and France (+12.7% per year).
Imports By Type
Powdered milk (639K tons), whole fresh milk (359K tons) and cream fresh (288K tons) were the main products of dairy produce imports to China, together comprising 76% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for cream fresh (with a CAGR of +25.4%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, powdered milk ($2.3B) constituted the largest type of dairy produce supplied to China, comprising 41% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by cream fresh ($1.1B), with a 19% share of total imports. It was followed by cheese, with a 16% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of powdered milk imports totaled -3.9%. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: cream fresh (+28.2% per year) and cheese (+13.1% per year).
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce import price amounted to $3,395 per ton, growing by 3.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 38% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $3,996 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, import prices failed to regain momentum.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was butter and dairy spreads ($7,030 per ton), while the price for skim milk ($765 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by butter and dairy spreads (+4.4%), while the prices for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
In 2023, the average dairy produce import price amounted to $3,292 per ton, dropping by -1.5% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a slight contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average import price increased by 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $3,996 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($4,584 per ton), while the price for Poland ($993 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+4.8%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
China’s Exports of Dairy
In 2024, overseas shipments of dairy produce increased by 36% to 70K tons, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. In general, total exports indicated a prominent increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +95.2% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
In value terms, dairy produce exports soared to $139M in 2024. Overall, exports showed a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 52%. The exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
Exports By Country
Hong Kong SAR (32K tons) was the main destination for dairy produce exports from China, accounting for a 62% share of total exports. Moreover, dairy produce exports to Hong Kong SAR exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (9K tons), fourfold. Mongolia (2.3K tons) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 4.5% share.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Hong Kong SAR was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (+34.8% per year) and Mongolia (+29.1% per year).
In value terms, Hong Kong SAR ($43M), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ($32M) and Mongolia ($7.9M) constituted the largest markets for dairy produce exported from China worldwide, together accounting for 78% of total exports. The Philippines, Singapore, Nigeria, Macao SAR and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 15%.
The United States, with a CAGR of +165.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
Whole fresh milk (30K tons), powdered milk (23K tons) and yoghurt and fermented milk (8.7K tons) were the main products of dairy produce exports from China, with a combined 88% share of total exports. Butter and dairy spreads, evaporated and condensed milk, ghee, cheese, skim milk and cream fresh lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 12%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for skim milk (with a CAGR of +192.5%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, powdered milk ($68M) remains the largest type of dairy produce exported from China, comprising 49% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by whole fresh milk ($26M), with a 19% share of total exports. It was followed by yoghurt and fermented milk, with a 14% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of powdered milk exports stood at +13.9%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: whole fresh milk (+0.9% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+39.5% per year).
Export Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce export price amounted to $1,998 per ton, declining by -3.9% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +41.3% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average export price increased by 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $2,081 per ton in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year.
There were significant differences in the average prices for the major types of exported product. In 2024, the product with the highest price was cheese ($4,431 per ton), while the average price for exports of whole fresh milk ($868 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: yoghurt and fermented milk (+7.9%), while the prices for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
The average dairy produce export price stood at $2,081 per ton in 2023, jumping by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +47.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2023 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Philippines ($4,135 per ton), while the average price for exports to Hong Kong SAR ($1,354 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Mongolia (+11.4%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.
