Mar 10, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Dried Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The European Union is experiencing an increasing demand for powdered, evaporated, and condensed milk, with market performance forecasted to grow at a CAGR of +0.6% in volume and +1.5% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market volume is projected to reach 3.5M tons with a market value of $8.9B in nominal prices.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.5M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
European Union’s Consumption of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk
In 2024, the amount of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk consumed in the European Union amounted to 3.3M tons, rising by 4.2% compared with the previous year’s figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
The value of the market for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk in the European Union rose to $7.6B in 2024, growing by 4.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $7.8B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Germany (783K tons), the Netherlands (713K tons) and Poland (198K tons), with a combined 52% share of total consumption. Greece, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy and Ireland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +13.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest powdered, evaporated and condensed milk markets in the European Union were Germany ($1.6B), the Netherlands ($1.4B) and France ($596M), together accounting for 48% of the total market. Italy, Poland, Spain, Belgium, Ireland and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.
Among the main consuming countries, Ireland, with a CAGR of +11.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The countries with the highest levels of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk per capita consumption in 2024 were the Netherlands (41 kg per person), Ireland (32 kg per person) and Greece (19 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +12.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Consumption By Type
The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were evaporated and condensed milk (2M tons) and powdered milk (1.3M tons).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for powdered milk (with a CAGR of +3.3%).
In value terms, the largest types of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk in terms of market size were powdered milk ($4.2B) and evaporated and condensed milk ($3.3B).
Powdered milk, with a CAGR of +2.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consumed products over the period under review.
Production
European Union’s Production of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk
In 2024, production of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk decreased by -2% to 4.2M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 15%. The volume of production peaked at 4.5M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk production stood at $11.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $11.5B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Germany (1.2M tons), the Netherlands (906K tons) and France (460K tons), with a combined 61% share of total production. Belgium, Ireland, Poland and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
The products with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were evaporated and condensed milk (2.1M tons) and powdered milk (2.1M tons).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for powdered milk (with a CAGR of +2.2%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($7.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($3.7B).
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of powdered milk production stood at +1.7%.
Imports
European Union’s Imports of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk
After four years of growth, overseas purchases of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk decreased by -9.6% to 1.8M tons in 2024. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 14%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at 1.9M tons in 2023, and then declined in the following year.
In value terms, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk imports dropped to $4.2B in 2024. Total imports indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -17.4% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when imports increased by 30% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $5.1B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.
Imports By Country
In 2024, the Netherlands (352K tons), followed by Belgium (233K tons), Germany (222K tons), Greece (197K tons), Italy (143K tons), Poland (129K tons), France (113K tons) and Spain (99K tons) were the major importers of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk, together creating 85% of total imports. Denmark (44K tons) held a little share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Denmark (with a CAGR of +7.4%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the Netherlands ($709M), Belgium ($601M) and Germany ($598M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 45% share of total imports. Italy, France, Poland, Spain, Greece and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.
Poland, with a CAGR of +4.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
In 2024, powdered milk (924K tons), followed by evaporated and condensed milk (832K tons) were the largest types of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk, together creating 100% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading imported products, was attained by powdered milk (with a CAGR of +1.8%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($3B) constitutes the largest type of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk imported in the European Union, comprising 70% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($1.3B), with a 30% share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of powdered milk imports was relatively modest.
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the import price in the European Union amounted to $2,405 per ton, flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the import price increased by 20%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,657 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,209 per ton), while the price for evaporated and condensed milk totaled $1,512 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (+0.6%).
Import Prices By Country
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,405 per ton in 2024, flattening at the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the import price increased by 20%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,657 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($3,179 per ton), while Denmark ($1,185 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+1.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
European Union’s Exports of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk
In 2024, the amount of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk exported in the European Union contracted to 2.7M tons, with a decrease of -13.1% on the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 15%. The volume of export peaked at 3.1M tons in 2023, and then contracted in the following year.
In value terms, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk exports dropped to $7.6B in 2024. In general, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 21%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at $9.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
Exports By Country
The biggest shipments were from Germany (611K tons), the Netherlands (546K tons), France (394K tons) and Belgium (379K tons), together accounting for 72% of total export. Ireland (182K tons) held a 6.8% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Poland (5.6%). Sweden (90K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest powdered, evaporated and condensed milk supplying countries in the European Union were the Netherlands ($1.6B), Germany ($1.5B) and France ($1.1B), with a combined 56% share of total exports. Belgium, Ireland, Poland and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.
In terms of the main exporting countries, Ireland, with a CAGR of +5.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
Powdered milk represented the key type of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk in the European Union, with the volume of exports amounting to 1.7M tons, which was near 64% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by evaporated and condensed milk (965K tons), constituting a 36% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exported products, was attained by powdered milk (with a CAGR of +1.2%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($5.8B) remains the largest type of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk supplied in the European Union, comprising 76% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($1.8B), with a 24% share of total exports.
For powdered milk, exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024.
Export Prices By Type
The export price in the European Union stood at $2,849 per ton in 2024, stabilizing at the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a slight contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 21%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs at $3,261 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,395 per ton), while the average price for exports of evaporated and condensed milk amounted to $1,886 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (+0.2%).
Export Prices By Country
The export price in the European Union stood at $2,849 per ton in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a slight slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the export price increased by 21%. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure at $3,261 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Ireland ($3,173 per ton) and the Netherlands ($3,006 per ton), while Germany ($2,471 per ton) and France ($2,772 per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (-0.5%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.
