Feb 28, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The European Union dairy market is expected to see steady growth over the next decade, with an estimated CAGR of +0.9% from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market volume is projected to reach 262M tons and the market value to hit $239B in nominal prices. This growth is driven by increasing demand for dairy produce in the region.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 262M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $239B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
European Union’s Consumption of Dairy
In 2024, the amount of dairy produce consumed in the European Union amounted to 238M tons, stabilizing at the previous year. Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The volume of consumption peaked at 240M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
The size of the dairy produce market in the European Union amounted to $217.1B in 2024, rising by 1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 8.7%. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $222.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Germany (53M tons), France (39M tons) and the Netherlands (21M tons), together comprising 47% of total consumption. Italy, Poland, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +4.1%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce markets in the European Union were Germany ($45.9B), France ($36.5B) and Italy ($23.9B), together comprising 49% of the total market. Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.
In terms of the main consuming countries, Ireland, with a CAGR of +4.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, the highest levels of dairy produce per capita consumption was registered in Ireland (2,810 kg per person), followed by Denmark (1,297 kg per person), the Netherlands (1,217 kg per person) and Belgium (741 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dairy produce was estimated at 534 kg per person.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the dairy produce per capita consumption in Ireland stood at +3.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Denmark (+0.4% per year) and the Netherlands (+1.8% per year).
Consumption By Type
Whole fresh milk (160M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 67% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (51M tons), threefold. Cheese (9.8M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.1% share.
For whole fresh milk, consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+0.5% per year) and cheese (+1.8% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($99B), cheese ($51.4B) and skim milk ($26.1B) constituted the products with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together comprising 81% of the total market. Yoghurt and fermented milk, butter and dairy spreads, cream fresh, powdered milk, evaporated and condensed milk and ghee lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 19%.
Ghee, with a CAGR of +3.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consumed products over the period under review, while market for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production
European Union’s Production of Dairy
In 2024, the amount of dairy produce produced in the European Union reached 241M tons, approximately reflecting the previous year’s figure. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 2.4%. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum volume at 242M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce production rose modestly to $230.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 10% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $239.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Germany (53M tons), France (40M tons) and the Netherlands (22M tons), with a combined 48% share of total production. Poland, Italy, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
Whole fresh milk (160M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 67% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (51M tons), threefold. Cheese (11M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.5% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of whole fresh milk production amounted to +1.0%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.4% per year) and cheese (+1.5% per year).
In value terms, the largest types of dairy produce in terms of market size were whole fresh milk ($100.1B), cheese ($58.2B) and skim milk ($26.4B), together accounting for 80% of the total output. Butter and dairy spreads, yoghurt and fermented milk, powdered milk, cream fresh, evaporated and condensed milk and ghee lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.
Butter and dairy spreads, with a CAGR of +2.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main produced products over the period under review, while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports
European Union’s Imports of Dairy
After three years of growth, purchases abroad of dairy produce decreased by -8.1% to 18M tons in 2024. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 7.7% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at 20M tons in 2023, and then fell in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce imports fell to $47.2B in 2024. Total imports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +38.1% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 20%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at $48.5B in 2023, and then declined in the following year.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.1M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.2M tons), Italy (2M tons), Belgium (2M tons), France (1.1M tons), Spain (0.9M tons) and Ireland (0.9M tons) represented the key importers of dairy produce, together mixing up 73% of total imports. Lithuania (536K tons), Greece (504K tons) and Poland (451K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce importing markets in the European Union were Germany ($9.2B), France ($5.7B) and Italy ($5.2B), with a combined 43% share of total imports. Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Greece, Ireland and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.
Poland, with a CAGR of +6.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
In 2024, whole fresh milk (7.3M tons), distantly followed by cheese (4.6M tons), yoghurt and fermented milk (1.8M tons), cream fresh (1M tons), powdered milk (0.9M tons) and evaporated and condensed milk (0.8M tons) represented the major types of dairy produce, together comprising 91% of total imports. Skim milk (723K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese (with a CAGR of +2.9%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($26B) constitutes the largest type of dairy produce imported in the European Union, comprising 55% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by butter and dairy spreads ($4.7B), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by whole fresh milk, with a 9.4% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese imports stood at +3.6%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: butter and dairy spreads (+4.1% per year) and whole fresh milk (+0.6% per year).
Import Prices By Type
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,615 per ton in 2024, picking up by 5.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce import price increased by +67.3% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, import prices attained the maximum in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was ghee ($8,281 per ton), while the price for skim milk ($551 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+4.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,615 per ton in 2024, picking up by 5.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated perceptible growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce import price increased by +67.3% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the import price increased by 15%. The level of import peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($5,169 per ton), while Lithuania ($902 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
European Union’s Exports of Dairy
In 2024, approx. 21M tons of dairy produce were exported in the European Union; dropping by -8.2% compared with the previous year’s figure. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 5.1%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 23M tons, and then shrank in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce exports shrank slightly to $63.5B in 2024. Total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +69.2% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $65.2B in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year.
Exports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.3M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.8M tons), France (2.3M tons), Belgium (2.1M tons), Poland (1.3M tons), the Czech Republic (1.1M tons) and Ireland (1M tons) were the key exporters of dairy produce, together achieving 71% of total exports. The following exporters – Denmark (826K tons), Austria (752K tons) and Italy (689K tons) – together made up 11% of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany ($11.5B), the Netherlands ($10.8B) and France ($7.7B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, with a combined 47% share of total exports. Italy, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.
In terms of the main exporting countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +6.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
In 2024, whole fresh milk (7.3M tons) and cheese (5.7M tons) were the main types of dairy produce in the European Union, together generating 62% of total exports. Yoghurt and fermented milk (2.3M tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by powdered milk (8.1%), cream fresh (6.3%), butter and dairy spreads (4.7%) and evaporated and condensed milk (4.6%).
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exported products, was attained by butter and dairy spreads (with a CAGR of +2.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($34B) remains the largest type of dairy produce supplied in the European Union, comprising 54% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by butter and dairy spreads ($7.3B), with an 11% share of total exports. It was followed by powdered milk, with a 9.1% share.
For cheese, exports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: butter and dairy spreads (+6.0% per year) and powdered milk (-0.6% per year).
Export Prices By Type
In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $3,026 per ton, picking up by 6.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +32.7% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the export price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was ghee ($8,508 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim milk ($417 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+3.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $3,026 per ton, rising by 6.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +32.7% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the export price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the peak figure in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($8,586 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($1,171 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+4.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
