Mar 14, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The European Union dairy market is projected to experience a positive consumption trend, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.5% in volume and +1.8% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market volume is expected to reach 250M tons, with a market value of $262.8B (in nominal wholesale prices).
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 250M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $262.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
European Union’s Consumption of Dairy
In 2024, dairy produce consumption in the European Union was estimated at 238M tons, remaining relatively unchanged against 2023 figures. In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The volume of consumption peaked at 240M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
The size of the dairy produce market in the European Union reached $217.1B in 2024, picking up by 1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the market value increased by 8.7%. The level of consumption peaked at $222.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Germany (53M tons), France (39M tons) and the Netherlands (21M tons), together comprising 47% of total consumption. Italy, Poland, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +4.1%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce markets in the European Union were Germany ($45.9B), France ($36.5B) and Italy ($23.9B), together comprising 49% of the total market. Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.
Among the main consuming countries, Ireland, with a CAGR of +4.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, the highest levels of dairy produce per capita consumption was registered in Ireland (2,810 kg per person), followed by Denmark (1,297 kg per person), the Netherlands (1,217 kg per person) and Belgium (741 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dairy produce was estimated at 534 kg per person.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the dairy produce per capita consumption in Ireland amounted to +3.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Denmark (+0.4% per year) and the Netherlands (+1.8% per year).
Consumption By Type
Whole fresh milk (160M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 67% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (51M tons), threefold. Cheese (9.8M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.1% share.
For whole fresh milk, consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013-2024. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.5% per year) and cheese (+1.8% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($99B), cheese ($51.4B) and skim milk ($26.1B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 81% share of the total market. Yoghurt and fermented milk, butter and dairy spreads, cream fresh, powdered milk, evaporated and condensed milk and ghee lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 19%.
In terms of the main consumed products, ghee, with a CAGR of +3.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production
European Union’s Production of Dairy
In 2024, dairy produce production in the European Union stood at 241M tons, flattening at 2023. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 2.4% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 242M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce production expanded to $230.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 10%. The level of production peaked at $239.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Germany (53M tons), France (40M tons) and the Netherlands (22M tons), together comprising 48% of total production. Poland, Italy, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
Whole fresh milk (160M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (51M tons), threefold. Cheese (11M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.5% share.
For whole fresh milk, production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+0.4% per year) and cheese (+1.5% per year).
In value terms, the largest types of dairy produce in terms of market size were whole fresh milk ($100.1B), cheese ($58.2B) and skim milk ($26.4B), with a combined 80% share of the total output. Butter and dairy spreads, yoghurt and fermented milk, powdered milk, cream fresh, evaporated and condensed milk and ghee lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.
In terms of the main produced products, butter and dairy spreads, with a CAGR of +2.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports
European Union’s Imports of Dairy
In 2024, purchases abroad of dairy produce decreased by -8.1% to 18M tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a three-year rising trend. In general, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at 20M tons in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce imports declined modestly to $47.2B in 2024. Total imports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +38.1% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at $48.5B in 2023, and then declined in the following year.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.1M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.2M tons), Italy (2M tons), Belgium (2M tons), France (1.1M tons), Spain (0.9M tons) and Ireland (0.9M tons) were the main importers of dairy produce, together making up 73% of total imports. The following importers – Lithuania (536K tons), Greece (504K tons) and Poland (451K tons) – together made up 8.3% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce importing markets in the European Union were Germany ($9.2B), France ($5.7B) and Italy ($5.2B), with a combined 43% share of total imports. Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Greece, Ireland and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.
Poland, with a CAGR of +6.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
In 2024, whole fresh milk (7.3M tons), distantly followed by cheese (4.6M tons), yoghurt and fermented milk (1.8M tons), cream fresh (1M tons), powdered milk (0.9M tons) and evaporated and condensed milk (0.8M tons) were the key types of dairy produce, together achieving 91% of total imports. Skim milk (723K tons) took a little share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese (with a CAGR of +2.9%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($26B) constitutes the largest type of dairy produce imported in the European Union, comprising 55% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by butter and dairy spreads ($4.7B), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by whole fresh milk, with a 9.4% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese imports stood at +3.6%. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: butter and dairy spreads (+4.1% per year) and whole fresh milk (+0.6% per year).
Import Prices By Type
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,615 per ton in 2024, rising by 5.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated a moderate expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce import price increased by +67.3% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was ghee ($8,281 per ton), while the price for skim milk ($551 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+4.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,615 per ton in 2024, rising by 5.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated a measured increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce import price increased by +67.3% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the import price increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($5,169 per ton), while Lithuania ($902 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
European Union’s Exports of Dairy
In 2024, approx. 21M tons of dairy produce were exported in the European Union; waning by -8.2% on 2023. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when exports increased by 5.1% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 23M tons, and then fell in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce exports shrank modestly to $63.5B in 2024. Total exports indicated a notable increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +69.2% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $65.2B in 2023, and then fell modestly in the following year.
Exports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.3M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.8M tons), France (2.3M tons), Belgium (2.1M tons), Poland (1.3M tons), the Czech Republic (1.1M tons) and Ireland (1M tons) were the largest exporters of dairy produce, together achieving 71% of total exports. The following exporters – Denmark (826K tons), Austria (752K tons) and Italy (689K tons) – together made up 11% of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce supplying countries in the European Union were Germany ($11.5B), the Netherlands ($10.8B) and France ($7.7B), with a combined 47% share of total exports. Italy, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.
In terms of the main exporting countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +6.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
In 2024, whole fresh milk (7.3M tons) and cheese (5.7M tons) were the largest types of dairy produce in the European Union, together reaching approx. 62% of total exports. Yoghurt and fermented milk (2.3M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by powdered milk (1.7M tons), cream fresh (1.3M tons), butter and dairy spreads (1M tons) and evaporated and condensed milk (1M tons). All these products together took approx. 35% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for butter and dairy spreads (with a CAGR of +2.4%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($34B) remains the largest type of dairy produce supplied in the European Union, comprising 54% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by butter and dairy spreads ($7.3B), with an 11% share of total exports. It was followed by powdered milk, with a 9.1% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese exports amounted to +3.2%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: butter and dairy spreads (+6.0% per year) and powdered milk (-0.6% per year).
Export Prices By Type
The export price in the European Union stood at $3,026 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 6.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +32.7% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 18% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was ghee ($8,508 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim milk ($417 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+3.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
The export price in the European Union stood at $3,026 per ton in 2024, growing by 6.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated temperate growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +32.7% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($8,586 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($1,171 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+4.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
