Apr 18, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The European Union dairy market is forecasted to continue growing over the next decade, with a projected CAGR of +0.5% in volume and +1.6% in value from 2024 to 2035. This growth is fueled by rising demand for dairy products, leading to an anticipated market volume of 250M tons and a value of $262.8B by the end of 2035.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 250M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $262.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
European Union’s Consumption of Dairy
In 2024, consumption of dairy produce in the European Union stood at 238M tons, approximately reflecting 2023. Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The volume of consumption peaked at 240M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
The size of the dairy produce market in the European Union stood at $220.4B in 2024, picking up by 3.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $227.3B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Germany (53M tons), France (39M tons) and the Netherlands (21M tons), together accounting for 47% of total consumption. Italy, Poland, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +4.1%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany ($46.2B), France ($37.1B) and Italy ($25.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 49% share of the total market. Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.
Ireland, with a CAGR of +4.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, the highest levels of dairy produce per capita consumption was registered in Ireland (2,819 kg per person), followed by Denmark (1,291 kg per person), the Netherlands (1,218 kg per person) and Belgium (732 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dairy produce was estimated at 534 kg per person.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the dairy produce per capita consumption in Ireland amounted to +3.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Denmark (+0.3% per year) and the Netherlands (+1.8% per year).
Consumption By Type
Whole fresh milk (161M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 67% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (51M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by cheese (9.7M tons), with a 4.1% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of whole fresh milk consumption stood at +1.0%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+0.5% per year) and cheese (+1.7% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($99.1B), cheese ($52.8B) and skim milk ($26.2B) constituted the products with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 81% share of the total market. Yoghurt and fermented milk, butter and dairy spreads, cream fresh, powdered milk, evaporated and condensed milk and ghee lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 19%.
In terms of the main consumed products, butter and dairy spreads, with a CAGR of +4.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production
European Union’s Production of Dairy
Dairy produce production was estimated at 241M tons in 2024, leveling off at 2023. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 2.4% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 242M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce production amounted to $236B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 11%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $244.7B. From 2023 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Germany (53M tons), France (40M tons) and the Netherlands (22M tons), together comprising 48% of total production. Poland, Italy, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
Whole fresh milk (160M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (51M tons), threefold. Cheese (11M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.5% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of whole fresh milk production amounted to +1.0%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+0.4% per year) and cheese (+1.5% per year).
In value terms, the largest types of dairy produce in terms of market size were whole fresh milk ($100.1B), cheese ($60.1B) and skim milk ($26.6B), together accounting for 79% of the total output. Butter and dairy spreads, yoghurt and fermented milk, powdered milk, cream fresh, evaporated and condensed milk and ghee lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.
Butter and dairy spreads, with a CAGR of +4.9%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main produced products over the period under review, while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports
European Union’s Imports of Dairy
In 2024, purchases abroad of dairy produce decreased by -7.4% to 18M tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a three-year rising trend. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate modest growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when imports increased by 7.7%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at 20M tons in 2023, and then fell in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce imports declined to $45B in 2024. Total imports indicated pronounced growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 20%. The level of import peaked at $48.5B in 2023, and then fell in the following year.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.2M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.1M tons), Italy (2M tons), Belgium (2M tons), France (1.1M tons), Spain (0.9M tons) and Ireland (0.9M tons) were the largest importers of dairy produce, together making up 73% of total imports. The following importers – Lithuania (620K tons), Greece (502K tons) and Poland (470K tons) – each recorded an 8.8% share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany ($8.8B), France ($5.3B) and Italy ($4.9B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 42% share of total imports. The Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Poland, Greece, Ireland and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.
Among the main importing countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +5.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
Whole fresh milk was the key imported product with an import of around 7.9M tons, which accounted for 44% of total imports. Cheese (4.3M tons) held a 24% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by yoghurt and fermented milk (9.7%), cream fresh (5%), powdered milk (4.8%) and evaporated and condensed milk (4.6%). Skim milk (722K tons) took a minor share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main imported products, was attained by cheese (with a CAGR of +2.4%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($24.4B) constitutes the largest type of dairy produce imported in the European Union, comprising 54% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by whole fresh milk ($4.6B), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by butter and dairy spreads, with a 10% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese imports stood at +3.0%. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: whole fresh milk (+1.1% per year) and butter and dairy spreads (+3.6% per year).
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the import price in the European Union amounted to $2,475 per ton, approximately equating the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 15% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was ghee ($8,285 per ton), while the price for skim milk ($567 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+4.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,475 per ton in 2024, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the import price increased by 15%. The level of import peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($5,057 per ton), while Lithuania ($852 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
European Union’s Exports of Dairy
In 2024, approx. 21M tons of dairy produce were exported in the European Union; dropping by -7.5% on the previous year’s figure. Overall, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when exports increased by 5.1%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 23M tons, and then shrank in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce exports fell to $62.2B in 2024. Total exports indicated a measured increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +65.6% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at $65.2B in 2023, and then dropped slightly in the following year.
Exports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.3M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.6M tons), France (2.3M tons), Belgium (2.1M tons), Poland (1.4M tons), the Czech Republic (1.1M tons) and Ireland (1M tons) were the largest exporters of dairy produce, together mixing up 70% of total exports. The following exporters – Denmark (840K tons), Austria (813K tons) and Italy (682K tons) – together made up 11% of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +6.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany ($11B), the Netherlands ($10.4B) and France ($7.6B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 47% of total exports. Italy, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 39%.
In terms of the main exporting countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +6.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
Whole fresh milk (7.8M tons) and cheese (5.5M tons) represented roughly 63% of total exports in 2024. Yoghurt and fermented milk (2.2M tons) held an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by powdered milk (7.9%), cream fresh (5.9%), evaporated and condensed milk (4.6%) and butter and dairy spreads (4.6%).
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exported products, was attained by butter and dairy spreads (with a CAGR of +2.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($33.1B) remains the largest type of dairy produce supplied in the European Union, comprising 53% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by butter and dairy spreads ($7.1B), with an 11% share of total exports. It was followed by powdered milk, with a 9% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese exports stood at +2.9%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: butter and dairy spreads (+5.7% per year) and powdered milk (-0.8% per year).
Export Prices By Type
In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $2,940 per ton, rising by 3.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated a mild increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +29.0% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the export price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was ghee ($8,646 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim milk ($412 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+3.9%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $2,940 per ton, rising by 3.1% against the previous year. Export price indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, dairy produce export price increased by +29.0% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the export price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($8,455 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($1,172 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+4.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
