Mar 3, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Skimmed Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The article discusses the anticipated upward consumption trend for powdered, condensed, or evaporated milk in the European Union, with market performance expected to decelerate. The forecast suggests a +0.6% CAGR in volume and +1.5% CAGR in value from 2024 to 2035, ultimately reaching 3.5M tons and $8.9B, respectively, by the end of 2035.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.5M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
European Union’s Consumption of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
In 2024, approx. 3.3M tons of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk were consumed in the European Union; surging by 4.2% against 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The volume of consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.
The size of the market for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk in the European Union stood at $7.6B in 2024, increasing by 4.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $7.8B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Germany (783K tons), the Netherlands (713K tons) and Poland (198K tons), with a combined 52% share of total consumption. Greece, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy and Ireland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +13.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany ($1.6B), the Netherlands ($1.4B) and France ($596M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together comprising 48% of the total market. Italy, Poland, Spain, Belgium, Ireland and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.
Ireland, with a CAGR of +11.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The countries with the highest levels of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk per capita consumption in 2024 were the Netherlands (41 kg per person), Ireland (32 kg per person) and Greece (19 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +12.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Consumption By Type
The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were evaporated and condensed milk (2M tons) and powdered milk (1.3M tons).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for powdered milk (with a CAGR of +3.3%).
In value terms, the largest types of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk in terms of market size were powdered milk ($4.2B) and evaporated and condensed milk ($3.3B).
Powdered milk, with a CAGR of +2.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consumed products over the period under review.
Production
European Union’s Production of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
In 2024, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, when its volume decreased by -2% to 4.2M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 15%. The volume of production peaked at 4.5M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight expansion of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.
In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk production stood at $11.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $11.5B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Germany (1.2M tons), the Netherlands (906K tons) and France (460K tons), together comprising 61% of total production. Belgium, Ireland, Poland and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
The products with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were evaporated and condensed milk (2.1M tons) and powdered milk (2.1M tons).
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key produced products, was attained by powdered milk (with a CAGR of +2.2%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($7.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($3.7B).
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of powdered milk production totaled +1.7%.
Imports
European Union’s Imports of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
After four years of growth, supplies from abroad of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk decreased by -9.6% to 1.8M tons in 2024. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at 1.9M tons in 2023, and then declined in the following year.
In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk imports declined to $4.2B in 2024. Total imports indicated a slight expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -17.4% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $5.1B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Imports By Country
In 2024, the Netherlands (352K tons), followed by Belgium (233K tons), Germany (222K tons), Greece (197K tons), Italy (143K tons), Poland (129K tons), France (113K tons) and Spain (99K tons) represented the largest importers of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, together committing 85% of total imports. Denmark (44K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Denmark (with a CAGR of +7.4%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest powdered, condensed or evaporated milk importing markets in the European Union were the Netherlands ($709M), Belgium ($601M) and Germany ($598M), together accounting for 45% of total imports. Italy, France, Poland, Spain, Greece and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.
Poland, with a CAGR of +4.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
In 2024, powdered milk (924K tons), followed by evaporated and condensed milk (832K tons) were the largest types of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, together constituting 100% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for powdered milk (with a CAGR of +1.8%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($3B) constitutes the largest type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk imported in the European Union, comprising 70% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($1.3B), with a 30% share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of powdered milk imports was relatively modest.
Import Prices By Type
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,405 per ton in 2024, flattening at the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 20%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $2,657 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices failed to regain momentum.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,209 per ton), while the price for evaporated and condensed milk amounted to $1,512 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (+0.6%).
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the import price in the European Union amounted to $2,405 per ton, almost unchanged from the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 20% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,657 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($3,179 per ton), while Denmark ($1,185 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+1.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
European Union’s Exports of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
Powdered, condensed or evaporated milk exports shrank to 2.7M tons in 2024, falling by -13.1% against the year before. In general, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at 3.1M tons in 2023, and then declined in the following year.
In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk exports reduced to $7.6B in 2024. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 21%. The level of export peaked at $9.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
Exports By Country
The biggest shipments were from Germany (611K tons), the Netherlands (546K tons), France (394K tons) and Belgium (379K tons), together recording 72% of total export. Ireland (182K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 6.8% share, followed by Poland (5.6%). Sweden (90K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the Netherlands ($1.6B), Germany ($1.5B) and France ($1.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together accounting for 56% of total exports. Belgium, Ireland, Poland and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.
Ireland, with a CAGR of +5.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
In 2024, powdered milk (1.7M tons) represented the main type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, constituting 64% of total exports. It was distantly followed by evaporated and condensed milk (965K tons), constituting a 36% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exported products, was attained by powdered milk (with a CAGR of +1.2%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($5.8B) remains the largest type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk supplied in the European Union, comprising 76% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($1.8B), with a 24% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of powdered milk exports was relatively modest.
Export Prices By Type
The export price in the European Union stood at $2,849 per ton in 2024, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a mild curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 21%. The level of export peaked at $3,261 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,395 per ton), while the average price for exports of evaporated and condensed milk amounted to $1,886 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (+0.2%).
Export Prices By Country
The export price in the European Union stood at $2,849 per ton in 2024, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a slight decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the export price increased by 21% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $3,261 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.
Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Ireland ($3,173 per ton) and the Netherlands ($3,006 per ton), while Germany ($2,471 per ton) and France ($2,772 per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (-0.5%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.
