Apr 7, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: World – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The global dairy market is set to experience a steady increase in consumption over the next decade, with projections showing a positive trend in both volume and value. By 2035, the market is expected to reach 1,380M tons in volume and $1,475.9B in value, driven by growing demand for dairy products on a global scale.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,380M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,475.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
World’s Consumption of Dairy
After eleven years of growth, consumption of dairy produce decreased by -0.5% to 1,206M tons in 2024. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 1,213M tons in 2023, and then dropped slightly in the following year.
The global dairy produce market value was estimated at $1,208.9B in 2024, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 7.2%. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $1,226.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were India (246M tons), the United States (136M tons) and Pakistan (69M tons), with a combined 37% share of global consumption.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce markets worldwide were India ($202.6B), the United States ($173.2B) and Pakistan ($65.7B), with a combined 37% share of the global market.
India, with a CAGR of +4.6%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, the highest levels of dairy produce per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (5,567 kg per person), followed by Germany (635 kg per person), France (568 kg per person) and the United States (402 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dairy produce was estimated at 149 kg per person.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the dairy produce per capita consumption in New Zealand totaled -1.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Germany (+0.3% per year) and France (-0.2% per year).
Consumption By Type
Whole fresh milk (960M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, comprising approx. 80% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (136M tons), sevenfold. Yoghurt and fermented milk (52M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.3% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of whole fresh milk consumption stood at +2.0%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.5% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+2.3% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($832.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by cheese ($136.9B). It was followed by skim milk.
For whole fresh milk, market increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: cheese (+2.8% per year) and skim milk (+0.1% per year).
Production
World’s Production of Dairy
After eleven years of growth, production of dairy produce decreased by -0.6% to 1,205M tons in 2024. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 3.7%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 1,213M tons in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce production reached $1,212B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 8.1%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $1,236B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were India (246M tons), the United States (137M tons) and Pakistan (69M tons), together accounting for 38% of global production.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
Whole fresh milk (960M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 80% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (136M tons), sevenfold. Yoghurt and fermented milk (52M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.3% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of whole fresh milk production amounted to +2.0%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.5% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+2.3% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($862.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by cheese ($139.3B). It was followed by skim milk.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of whole fresh milk production totaled +2.8%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: cheese (+2.7% per year) and skim milk (-0.0% per year).
Imports
World’s Imports of Dairy
In 2024, supplies from abroad of dairy produce decreased by -1.2% to 33M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 4.5% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 34M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, dairy produce imports shrank to $95.2B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $97.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.1M tons), followed by the Netherlands (2.2M tons), Italy (2M tons), Belgium (2M tons) and China (1.7M tons) were the largest importers of dairy produce, together mixing up 37% of total imports. The following importers – the UK (1,132K tons), France (1,110K tons), Spain (886K tons), Ireland (867K tons) and Algeria (761K tons) – together made up 14% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Algeria (with a CAGR of +8.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce importing markets worldwide were Germany ($9.2B), France ($5.7B) and China ($5.7B), together comprising 22% of global imports.
France, with a CAGR of +3.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
Whole fresh milk (9.2M tons), cheese (7.7M tons) and powdered milk (6.4M tons) represented roughly 71% of total imports in 2024. Yoghurt and fermented milk (3M tons) held a 9.1% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by evaporated and condensed milk (6%) and cream fresh (5%). Butter and dairy spreads (1.4M tons) took a minor share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key imported products, was attained by cream fresh (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($43.8B) constitutes the largest type of dairy produce imported worldwide, comprising 46% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by powdered milk ($18.5B), with a 19% share of global imports. It was followed by butter and dairy spreads, with a 9.8% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese imports amounted to +2.9%. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: powdered milk (-1.4% per year) and butter and dairy spreads (+4.0% per year).
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce import price amounted to $2,895 per ton, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was ghee ($6,706 per ton), while the price for skim milk ($605 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+3.5%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the average dairy produce import price amounted to $2,895 per ton, approximately equating the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.
Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($5,169 per ton), while Ireland ($1,089 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
World’s Exports of Dairy
Global dairy produce exports contracted to 32M tons in 2024, with a decrease of -4.7% against the previous year. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 4.6%. The global exports peaked at 34M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce exports fell slightly to $96.4B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 19%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $97.2B in 2023, and then fell modestly in the following year.
Exports By Country
The shipments of the nine major exporters of dairy produce, namely Germany, New Zealand, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, the United States, Poland, the UK and the Czech Republic, represented more than half of total export. Ireland (1M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($11.5B), New Zealand ($11.5B) and the Netherlands ($10.8B), with a combined 35% share of global exports. France, the United States, Belgium, Ireland, Poland, the UK and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.
Ireland, with a CAGR of +5.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
Whole fresh milk (9M tons), cheese (7.7M tons) and powdered milk (5.4M tons) represented roughly 70% of total exports in 2024. Yoghurt and fermented milk (3.3M tons) held an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by cream fresh (5.3%), evaporated and condensed milk (5.1%) and butter and dairy spreads (4.7%).
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exported products, was attained by cream fresh (with a CAGR of +2.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($44.3B) remains the largest type of dairy produce supplied worldwide, comprising 46% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by powdered milk ($18.2B), with a 19% share of global exports. It was followed by butter and dairy spreads, with an 11% share.
For cheese, exports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: powdered milk (-1.5% per year) and butter and dairy spreads (+4.5% per year).
Export Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce export price amounted to $3,027 per ton, rising by 4.2% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was ghee ($6,986 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim milk ($565 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+3.6%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
The average dairy produce export price stood at $3,027 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 17%. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Ireland ($4,158 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($1,171 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
