Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in European countries and the cancellation of the preferential duty-free regime by the EU for Ukrainian agricultural exporters create preconditions for a further decline in milk prices in Ukraine. This was reported by Georgy Kuhaleishvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers, writes UNN.
How the average price of extra grade, higher grade and first grade milk changed. The average price at which extra grade milk is purchased was UAH 16.35/kg excluding VAT as of March 25. This is 45 kopecks less than a month ago. The range of prices for extra grade milk on farms varies from UAH 15.70 to UAH 16.70/kg excluding VAT.
The lower limit of the price range decreased by 80 kopecks, and the upper limit decreased by 30 kopecks over the past month.
Higher grade milk now costs an average of UAH 16.15/kg excluding VAT, which is 50 kopecks less compared to last month. Prices for higher grade milk range from UAH 15.50 to UAH 16.30/kg excluding VAT.
Compared to the monitoring results of the second half of last month, the lower and upper limits of the price range decreased by 50 kopecks.
The average price for first grade milk was UAH 15.65/kg excluding VAT. This is 35 kopecks less than last month. The minimum price on farms was UAH 15.00/kg, which is 20 kopecks less compared to last month. The maximum price was UAH 16.00/kg. It fell by 20 kopecks.
Accordingly, the average weighted price of the three grades was UAH 16.20/kg excluding VAT, which is 40 kopecks less than a month ago.
Purchase prices in Ukraine continued to move down in the second half of March.
In the first half of March, this was influenced by the surplus of raw milk on the market.
However, now there are fewer milk surpluses in the country due to increased exports of dairy products from Ukraine and increased consumption within the country. Dairy processing plants are actively stimulating consumption of dairy products in Ukraine with various promotions and discounts on their products.
It is expected that on April 1 there may be a slight decrease in the price of raw milk in Ukraine by 20-30 kopecks
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How the situation on the dairy market in other countries affects the price of Ukrainian milk
In terms of euros, prices for raw milk in Ukraine are higher than in New Zealand and South American countries, which actively export their dairy products to Asia and Africa and compete with Ukrainian and European exporters.
According to Georgy Kuhaleishvili, the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Hungary and Slovakia and the likelihood of the disease spreading to Poland and Austria are forcing dairy processing enterprises in these countries to export significant volumes of dairy products. In the event of quarantine, they may switch to the production of long-term storage products, including butter or powdered milk. These goods are key items of Ukrainian dairy exports.
The accumulation of butter and powdered milk in warehouses in Europe may affect the reduction of prices for similar products and raw milk in Ukraine. There is also a risk of foot-and-mouth disease spreading to Ukraine from neighboring countries, which could lead to significant losses for the dairy industry
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Another factor in the decline in prices for raw milk in Ukraine, according to Georgy Kuhaleishvili, may be the cancellation on June 5, 2025 by the EU of the preferential customs regime for agricultural products of Ukrainian production, including dairy products.
The restoration of duties is likely to affect the reduction of dairy exports from Ukraine even to third countries, as they are supplied through the seaports of Poland and Romania.
Most likely, surpluses of raw milk in Ukraine will increase, and purchase prices will go down if events develop according to a similar scenario.
Let us remind you
Earlier, UNN wrote that the cost of buckwheat, milk and butter, in particular, increased in supermarkets in Ukraine. Oleg Pendzin, Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club, said that the increase in egg prices will be even before the Easter holidays. They will cost approximately UAH 80-85 per dozen.
