Dairy farmers looking for insights to Global Dairy Trade prices and their effect on milk price forecasts are being offered a new report by those in the know and with figures at their fingertips.
It is the SGX-NZX Dairy Derivatives Pre-GDT Digest, published bi-monthly about 24 hours before each crucial GDT event.
The report provides a comprehensive analysis of key market elements with the aim of helping readers make informed decisions in the trade of milk and dairy derivatives, futures and options.
The Pre-GDT Digest covers futures prices, cross-commodity exchanges from SGX-NZX, EEX, and CME, along with a detailed view of NZX’s stream return forecast and volatility indicators.
“This bi-monthly report can help readers with insights to assist in understanding the dairy futures market,” NZX Dairy Data and Insights team leader Cristina Alvarado said.
“We estimate that almost 25% of NZ’s milk production (at a farmer and processor level) is now utilising some form of price risk management tool but we are a long way behind the use by farmers of these tools in the United States and Europe.”
Alvarado’s team at NZX monitors all aspects of global dairy markets and their NZ implications, writing nine regular reports and custom reports on request.
Former Fonterra senior adviser Alvarado is the commercial manager for services and subscriptions, assisted by dairy analysts Rosalind Crickett and Lewis Hoggard.
Venezuelan-born Alvarado has a BA and LLB plus a Master’s in international business (Hons) from the University of Auckland.
From a rural background, Crickett graduated from the University of Waikato with a BMS in agribusiness and strategic management, and Hoggard graduated from Auckland with a BCom in finance and economics.
Their work timetables are calendar driven and dominated by the fortnightly GDT Trading Events and alternating Pulse auctions, including pre- and post-market reports, along with the cycle of daily, weekly, fortnightly and monthly reports (see below).
NZX has one-third ownership of the GDT platform with Fonterra and the European Energy Exchange (EEX).
About 30%, or more than 6000, NZX report users/subscribers are outside of NZ in more than 25 countries as market participants and observers seek information about our dominant dairy industry.
Farmers, processors, traders, brokers, buyers and financial services subscribe to bundles of up to six regular reports, along with access to market data and historical information going back 25 years.
Dairy farmers may find most useful these six relevant reports: the Daily Dairy Update, Dairy Insight, Grain and Feed Insight, NZ Pasture Growth Index (PGI), Milk Production Predictor and the latest, Pre-GDT Digest.
The Milk Production Predictor goes back to farm level with the Farmgate Milk Price Calculator, updated two days after every GDT event, with a forecast view into the current season and the next.
Farmers can input their own figures to generate a personalised price forecast.
The PGI weekly reports regionally and nationally and the data is updated daily, with access to a forecasting tool on pasture growth expectations.
Farmers use Dairy Insight to understand the drivers of their milk price and forecasts for the coming seasons, and benchmark feed input costs.
The Grain & Feed Insight is a practical tool to assist in making profitable decisions as a buyer or seller of feed grains.
It has international and national prices and commentary on market trends.
Growers who are members of the Foundation for Arable Research (FAR) receive a subscription discount.
NZX has a group of farmers who are partners, receiving free or discounted subscriptions in return for regular conversations with NZX analysts to better understand regional differences in factors leading to production.
NZX holds seminars for farmers and other industry participants on the education of dairy derivatives as risk management tools, guiding but not providing financial advice.
It is also an organiser of the annual SGX-NZX Global Dairy Seminar, to be held this year, October 7 to 9 in Singapore.
It is the cornerstone event for the dairy industry to convene, share perspectives and stay informed on the latest market developments with international stakeholders across Asia, Oceania, Europe and the Americas.
The Dairy Trade Statistics reports provide insights into exports and import statistics of dairy commodity figures from Australia, the United States, European Union, Argentina and China.
The NZX Dairy team has taken over the release of New Zealand’s national milk production, previously published by the Dairy Companies Association of NZ, which is available to the public on its website and by email distribution list upon request.
NZX Data and Insights also undertakes special surveys and reports on request, seeking to bring better understanding of topics such as a region’s milk production or dairy market country.
Alvarado said all new accounts have free trial periods and that customers can select to bundle different reports to suit their needs and budgets.
Free trial: NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
Global Dairy Seminar: SGX-NZX Global Dairy Seminar 2024 – Singapore Exchange (SGX)
NZX Dairy Team Products
• Dairy Update: Incorporates the latest relevant news from local and global dairy markets. It includes daily, weekly, GDT forecast and GDT results reports.
• Pre-GDT Dairy Derivatives Digest: Bi-monthly report covers futures prices, cross-commodity exchanges, a view of NZX’s stream return forecast and volatility indicators to help readers make informed decisions in the trade of milk and dairy derivatives futures/options.
• Monthly Dairy Report: In-depth analysis on key factors influencing the dairy industry, both internationally and within NZ.
• Global Dairy Snapshot: Weekly NZX survey prices for WMP, SMP, cheddar, butter, casein, and AMF. It also contains prices from across the globe.
• Dairy Trade Statistics: Monthly export data for the main dairy commodities for NZ, Australia, US, EU and Argentina. This subscription includes access to use of raw data.
• NZ Pasture Growth Index (PGI): Weekly report on this topic and access to the PGI tool.
• Milk Production Predictor: This subscription includes access to the NZX Milk Price calculator.
• Dairy Insight: Weekly insights report that interprets what is happening in the global dairy commodity markets and what this will mean for farmgate milk prices here.
• Grain & Feed Insight: Bi-monthly report on independent commentary and analysis of prices and industry trends.
