Mar 2, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: U.S. – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The dairy market in the United States is anticipated to experience consistent growth over the next decade, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.4%. This growth is driven by increasing demand for dairy produce, resulting in a projected market volume of 159M tons and a market value of $202.4B by the end of 2035.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce in the United States, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 159M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $202.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
United States’s Consumption of Dairy
In 2024, approx. 136M tons of dairy produce were consumed in the United States; remaining constant against 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 3.1% against the previous year. Dairy produce consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.
The revenue of the dairy produce market in the United States amounted to $173.2B in 2024, growing by 1.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Dairy produce consumption peaked at $187.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Consumption By Type
Whole fresh milk (103M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, comprising approx. 75% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (17M tons), sixfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by yoghurt and fermented milk (7.5M tons), with a 5.5% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of whole fresh milk consumption amounted to +1.1%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+1.1% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+5.1% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($116.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by cheese ($30.3B). It was followed by skim milk.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of whole fresh milk market amounted to +3.5%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: cheese (+2.8% per year) and skim milk (+1.3% per year).
Production
United States’s Production of Dairy
In 2024, the amount of dairy produce produced in the United States contracted slightly to 137M tons, remaining constant against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 3.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum volume at 137M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce production expanded to $179.5B in 2024. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 12%. Dairy produce production peaked at $195.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
Production By Type
Whole fresh milk (103M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 75% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (17M tons), sixfold. The third position in this ranking was held by yoghurt and fermented milk (7.5M tons), with a 5.4% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of whole fresh milk production totaled +1.1%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: skim milk (+1.1% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+5.1% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($119B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by cheese ($31.9B). It was followed by skim milk.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of whole fresh milk production totaled +3.8%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: cheese (+3.0% per year) and skim milk (+1.4% per year).
Imports
United States’s Imports of Dairy
In 2024, supplies from abroad of dairy produce increased by 13% to 479K tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, imports saw strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 77% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
In value terms, dairy produce imports soared to $3.2B in 2024. In general, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +74.3% against 2020 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
Imports By Country
Ireland (54K tons), Mexico (52K tons) and France (46K tons) were the main suppliers of dairy produce imports to the United States, together accounting for 36% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +17.8%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce suppliers to the United States were Italy ($473M), Ireland ($437M) and France ($281M), together comprising 44% of total imports.
Ireland, with a CAGR of +22.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
In 2024, cheese (215K tons) constituted the largest type of dairy produce supplied to the United States, accounting for a 45% share of total imports. Moreover, cheese exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, butter and dairy spreads (87K tons), twofold. Yoghurt and fermented milk (54K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with an 11% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of cheese imports stood at +3.5%. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: butter and dairy spreads (+23.9% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+8.5% per year).
In value terms, cheese ($1.9B) constituted the largest type of dairy produce supplied to the United States, comprising 62% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by butter and dairy spreads ($726M), with a 23% share of total imports. It was followed by yoghurt and fermented milk, with a 4.8% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese imports stood at +4.5%. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: butter and dairy spreads (+29.1% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+7.6% per year).
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce import price amounted to $6,571 per ton, increasing by 2.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average import price increased by 32% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $9,377 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was cheese ($9,017 per ton), while the price for cream fresh ($1,310 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by whole fresh milk (+19.0%), while the prices for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
The average dairy produce import price stood at $6,391 per ton in 2023, rising by 2.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the average import price increased by 32%. The import price peaked at $9,377 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, import prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($11,790 per ton), while the price for Chile ($2,399 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+6.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
United States’s Exports of Dairy
In 2024, overseas shipments of dairy produce decreased by -0.1% to 1.5M tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 15%. The exports peaked at 1.6M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce exports stood at $5.2B in 2024. In general, total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -15.8% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when exports increased by 26%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $6.2B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Exports By Country
Mexico (612K tons) was the main destination for dairy produce exports from the United States, with a 42% share of total exports. Moreover, dairy produce exports to Mexico exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the Philippines (103K tons), sixfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Canada (87K tons), with a 5.9% share.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume to Mexico stood at +6.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Philippines (+3.3% per year) and Canada (+4.0% per year).
In value terms, Mexico ($2B) remains the key foreign market for dairy produce exports from the United States, comprising 40% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Canada ($338M), with a 6.6% share of total exports. It was followed by the Philippines, with a 6.1% share.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Mexico stood at +6.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Canada (+9.6% per year) and the Philippines (+1.3% per year).
Exports By Type
Powdered milk (771K tons), cheese (514K tons) and yoghurt and fermented milk (61K tons) were the main products of dairy produce exports from the United States, with a combined 92% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for yoghurt and fermented milk (with a CAGR of +4.6%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, dairy produce with the largest exports in the United States were cheese ($2.5B), powdered milk ($2.1B) and butter and dairy spreads ($207M), together accounting for 93% of total exports. Yoghurt and fermented milk, whole fresh milk, cream fresh, evaporated and condensed milk, ghee and skim milk lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 7.5%.
Cream fresh, with a CAGR of +17.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main product categories over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce export price amounted to $3,567 per ton, with an increase of 1.9% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 24%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $3,925 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was cream fresh ($16,873 per ton), while the average price for exports of ghee ($2,056 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: cream fresh (+29.0%), while the prices for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
The average dairy produce export price stood at $3,501 per ton in 2023, with a decrease of -10.8% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 24% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $3,925 per ton, and then contracted in the following year.
There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($4,839 per ton), while the average price for exports to Vietnam ($2,713 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Canada (+5.4%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.
