Mar 10, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: World – Dairy Produce – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The dairy market is forecasted to continue its upward consumption trend, with a projected CAGR of +1.8% from 2024 to 2035. This growth is expected to be fueled by rising demand for dairy products on a global scale, leading to significant expansion in both market volume and value.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,469M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,471.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
World’s Consumption of Dairy
In 2024, consumption of dairy produce decreased by -0.5% to 1,206M tons for the first time since 2012, thus ending a eleven-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 1,213M tons in 2023, and then contracted slightly in the following year.
The global dairy produce market revenue reached $1,208.9B in 2024, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the market value increased by 7.2% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $1,226.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were India (246M tons), the United States (136M tons) and Pakistan (69M tons), with a combined 37% share of global consumption.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, India ($202.6B), the United States ($173.2B) and Pakistan ($65.7B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together comprising 37% of the global market.
India, with a CAGR of +4.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, the highest levels of dairy produce per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (5,567 kg per person), followed by Germany (635 kg per person), France (568 kg per person) and the United States (402 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dairy produce was estimated at 149 kg per person.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the dairy produce per capita consumption in New Zealand amounted to -1.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Germany (+0.3% per year) and France (-0.2% per year).
Consumption By Type
Whole fresh milk (960M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 80% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (136M tons), sevenfold. Yoghurt and fermented milk (52M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.3% share.
For whole fresh milk, consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013-2024. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.5% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+2.3% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($752.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by cheese ($136.9B). It was followed by yoghurt and fermented milk.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of whole fresh milk market stood at +1.7%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: cheese (+2.8% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+3.0% per year).
Production
World’s Production of Dairy
In 2024, after eleven years of growth, there was decline in production of dairy produce, when its volume decreased by -0.6% to 1,205M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 3.7% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 1,213M tons in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year.
In value terms, dairy produce production totaled $1,212B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 8.1%. Global production peaked at $1,236B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were India (246M tons), the United States (137M tons) and Pakistan (69M tons), with a combined 38% share of global production.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
Whole fresh milk (960M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 80% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (136M tons), sevenfold. Yoghurt and fermented milk (52M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.3% share.
For whole fresh milk, production expanded at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013-2024. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.5% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+2.3% per year).
In value terms, whole fresh milk ($754.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by cheese ($139.3B). It was followed by yoghurt and fermented milk.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of whole fresh milk production amounted to +1.6%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: cheese (+2.7% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+2.8% per year).
Imports
World’s Imports of Dairy
In 2024, purchases abroad of dairy produce decreased by -1.2% to 33M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 4.5%. Global imports peaked at 34M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce imports fell to $95.2B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $97.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Germany (4.1M tons), followed by the Netherlands (2.2M tons), Italy (2M tons), Belgium (2M tons) and China (1.7M tons) represented the main importers of dairy produce, together achieving 37% of total imports. The UK (1,132K tons), France (1,110K tons), Spain (886K tons), Ireland (867K tons) and Algeria (761K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Algeria (with a CAGR of +8.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce importing markets worldwide were Germany ($9.2B), France ($5.7B) and China ($5.7B), with a combined 22% share of global imports.
Among the main importing countries, France, with a CAGR of +3.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
Whole fresh milk (9.2M tons), cheese (7.7M tons) and powdered milk (6.4M tons) represented roughly 71% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by yoghurt and fermented milk (3M tons), evaporated and condensed milk (1.9M tons) and cream fresh (1.7M tons), together creating a 20% share of total imports. Butter and dairy spreads (1.4M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main imported products, was attained by cream fresh (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($43.8B) constitutes the largest type of dairy produce imported worldwide, comprising 46% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by powdered milk ($18.3B), with a 19% share of global imports. It was followed by butter and dairy spreads, with a 9.9% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese imports stood at +2.9%. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: powdered milk (-1.4% per year) and butter and dairy spreads (+4.0% per year).
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce import price amounted to $2,895 per ton, remaining constant against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average import price increased by 13%. Global import price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was ghee ($6,706 per ton), while the price for skim milk ($612 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+3.5%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
The average dairy produce import price stood at $2,895 per ton in 2024, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($5,169 per ton), while Ireland ($1,089 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
World’s Exports of Dairy
In 2024, approx. 32M tons of dairy produce were exported worldwide; dropping by -4.7% against the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 4.6%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 34M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, dairy produce exports contracted slightly to $96.4B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at $97.2B in 2023, and then reduced slightly in the following year.
Exports By Country
The shipments of the nine major exporters of dairy produce, namely Germany, New Zealand, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, the United States, Poland, the UK and the Czech Republic, represented more than half of total export. Ireland (1M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest dairy produce supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($11.5B), New Zealand ($11.5B) and the Netherlands ($10.8B), with a combined 35% share of global exports. France, the United States, Belgium, Ireland, Poland, the UK and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.
Ireland, with a CAGR of +5.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
The exports of the three major types of dairy produce, namely whole fresh milk, cheese and powdered milk, represented more than two-thirds of total export. Yoghurt and fermented milk (3.3M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by cream fresh (1.7M tons), evaporated and condensed milk (1.6M tons) and butter and dairy spreads (1.5M tons). All these products together took near 25% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for cream fresh (with a CAGR of +2.3%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, cheese ($44.3B) remains the largest type of dairy produce supplied worldwide, comprising 46% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by powdered milk ($18.3B), with a 19% share of global exports. It was followed by butter and dairy spreads, with an 11% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese exports amounted to +3.0%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: powdered milk (-1.6% per year) and butter and dairy spreads (+4.5% per year).
Export Prices By Type
In 2024, the average dairy produce export price amounted to $3,027 per ton, with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 17%. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was ghee ($6,986 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim milk ($540 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+3.6%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average dairy produce export price amounted to $3,027 per ton, increasing by 4.2% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Ireland ($4,158 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($1,171 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
