Apr 7, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Skimmed Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The European Union market for powdered, condensed, and evaporated milk is set to experience a steady increase in demand over the next decade. Market performance is expected to slow down slightly, with a projected CAGR of +0.3% for volume and +1.7% for value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, market volume is estimated to reach 3.4M tons and market value to reach $9.5B in nominal prices.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.4M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $9.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
European Union’s Consumption of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
In 2024, approx. 3.3M tons of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk were consumed in the European Union; rising by 4.5% against the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The volume of consumption peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
The size of the market for powdered, condensed or evaporated milk in the European Union rose to $8B in 2024, increasing by 4.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total consumption indicated modest growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -7.1% against 2022 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $8.6B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Germany (784K tons), the Netherlands (713K tons) and Poland (198K tons), with a combined 52% share of total consumption. Greece, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy and Ireland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +11.5%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany ($1.8B), the Netherlands ($1.5B) and France ($582M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together comprising 48% of the total market. Belgium, Poland, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.
In terms of the main consuming countries, Ireland, with a CAGR of +7.1%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The countries with the highest levels of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk per capita consumption in 2024 were the Netherlands (41 kg per person), Ireland (32 kg per person) and Greece (19 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +10.5%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Consumption By Type
The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were evaporated and condensed milk (2M tons) and powdered milk (1.3M tons).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for powdered milk (with a CAGR of +3.0%).
In value terms, the largest types of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk in terms of market size were powdered milk ($4.2B) and evaporated and condensed milk ($3.3B).
Among the main consumed products, powdered milk, with a CAGR of +2.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review.
Production
European Union’s Production of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
In 2024, production of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk decreased by -2% to 4.2M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 4.5M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight expansion of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.
In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk production declined modestly to $11.8B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the production volume increased by 15%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $12.8B. From 2023 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Germany (1.2M tons), the Netherlands (906K tons) and France (460K tons), with a combined 61% share of total production. Belgium, Ireland, Poland and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Production By Type
The products with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were evaporated and condensed milk (2.1M tons) and powdered milk (2.1M tons).
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key produced products, was attained by powdered milk (with a CAGR of +2.1%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($7.4B) and evaporated and condensed milk ($3.7B) were the products with the highest levels of production in 2024.
Among the main produced products, powdered milk, with a CAGR of +1.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review.
Imports
European Union’s Imports of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
In 2024, supplies from abroad of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk decreased by -9.5% to 1.8M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a four-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 1.9M tons in 2023, and then contracted in the following year.
In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk imports declined to $4.2B in 2024. Total imports indicated slight growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -17.4% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when imports increased by 30% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $5.1B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.
Imports By Country
In 2024, the Netherlands (352K tons), followed by Belgium (233K tons), Germany (222K tons), Greece (197K tons), Italy (143K tons), Poland (129K tons), France (114K tons) and Spain (99K tons) were the largest importers of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, together committing 85% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +5.3%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest powdered, condensed or evaporated milk importing markets in the European Union were the Netherlands ($709M), Belgium ($601M) and Germany ($598M), together comprising 45% of total imports. Italy, France, Poland, Spain and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.
Poland, with a CAGR of +4.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
In 2024, powdered milk (902K tons), followed by evaporated and condensed milk (828K tons) were the largest types of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, together mixing up 100% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading imported products, was attained by powdered milk (with a CAGR of +1.5%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($2.9B) constitutes the largest type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk imported in the European Union, comprising 70% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($1.3B), with a 30% share of total imports.
For powdered milk, imports remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024.
Import Prices By Type
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,410 per ton in 2024, approximately reflecting the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 20%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,656 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,201 per ton), while the price for evaporated and condensed milk stood at $1,516 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (+0.7%).
Import Prices By Country
The import price in the European Union stood at $2,410 per ton in 2024, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the import price increased by 20% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,656 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the import prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($3,177 per ton), while Greece ($1,464 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+1.3%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.
Exports
European Union’s Exports of Powdered, Condensed Or Evaporated Milk
In 2024, exports of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk in the European Union reduced to 2.7M tons, shrinking by -13.4% on the previous year’s figure. Overall, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 17% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at 3.1M tons in 2023, and then fell in the following year.
In value terms, powdered, condensed or evaporated milk exports shrank to $7.6B in 2024. In general, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $9.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Exports By Country
The shipments of the four major exporters of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, namely Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium, represented more than two-thirds of total export. Ireland (182K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Poland (149K tons). All these countries together held approx. 12% share of total exports. Sweden (90K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the Netherlands ($1.6B), Germany ($1.5B) and France ($1.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 56% of total exports. Belgium, Ireland, Poland and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.
Ireland, with a CAGR of +5.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
In 2024, powdered milk (1.7M tons) represented the major type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk, creating 64% of total exports. It was distantly followed by evaporated and condensed milk (964K tons), comprising a 36% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exported products, was attained by powdered milk (with a CAGR of +1.2%).
In value terms, powdered milk ($5.8B) remains the largest type of powdered, condensed or evaporated milk supplied in the European Union, comprising 76% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($1.8B), with a 24% share of total exports.
For powdered milk, exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2024.
Export Prices By Type
The export price in the European Union stood at $2,857 per ton in 2024, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a slight curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs at $3,265 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,407 per ton), while the average price for exports of evaporated and condensed milk stood at $1,886 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by evaporated and condensed milk (+0.2%).
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the export price in the European Union amounted to $2,857 per ton, approximately equating the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate a slight descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the export price increased by 20%. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs at $3,265 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Ireland ($3,173 per ton) and the Netherlands ($3,005 per ton), while Germany ($2,472 per ton) and France ($2,772 per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (-0.5%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.
